Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
